accwa

Assessment of the Climate Change effects on the WAve conditions in the Black Sea

pn-iii-p4-id-pce-2016-0028

exploratory research project

Contract no. 18/2017, Source of funding: The Executive Unit for Financing in Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation (UEFISCDI).

Funding amount: 828.000 lei. Implementation period: July 2017 - December 2019 (30 months).

Project Description

The ACCWA project aims to quantify the present and to explore the future wave climate in the Black Sea basin, with the special focus on the Romanian coastal environment. Extended simulations with the SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model, forced with Regional Climate Model wind fields, will be performed for three climate periods, of 30-year time-slice each. Slices of thirty year of data are considered by World Meteorological Organization long enough to calculate an average that is not influenced by year-to-year variability. These time-slices will cover the "present" conditions, regarded as the "control" conditions, when the simulation results will be compared with observations, the "near future" conditions that will cover the mid-21th century, and a century later into the "future" conditions (the last 30-year period of the 21st century). Two sets of simulations corresponding to the future conditions will be made considering the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Statistics (monthly, annual and seasonal) of the main wave parameters will be computed for the entire basin (with the special attention for the significant wave height), and various comparisons between the present and the future climates will be made. Changes in the marine extreme events will be evaluated in some key locations. Approaches of extreme value analysis will be implemented for the estimation of the significant wave heights return values in various locations. The methods will be applied to the climatic time series spanning the "near future" and "future" periods, and the results will be compared to those corresponding to the "present" simulations. In this way the future climatic trends of the extreme events will be evaluated. Based on the results obtained, potential future changes in the wave climate of the Black Sea will be assessed, especially to identify the possible trends in the sea wave climate. The expected costal dynamics will be also assessed.

Workshop 2019

Project Objectives

The general objective of the ACCWA project is to quantify the present and to explore the future wave climate in the Black Sea basin, with a special focus on the Romanian coastal environment.

Regional wave climate projection studies provide valuable input to regional coastal impacts and adaptation assessments, but to date, such studies have not been made for the Black Sea. Starting from the fact that, different and diverse projections of the wind climate are available, the first target is to evaluate how realistic the RCM wind fields are in the recent past for the target area. The opportunity of such evaluation is given also by the fact that in enclosed basins, as the Black Sea is, the modelled wind fields are less accurate than in open ocean due to the strong influence of the land on the marine surface wind fields (Signell et al., 2005; Rusu et al., 2014), as also due to their high variability (Efimov & Anisimov, 2011). Thus, the ensemble of the historical downscaled wind fields provided by RCMs will be compared with observations and also with several reanalysis data sets. Without this careful evaluation, the uncertainties in the projections of future wind climate regimes may also propagate in the wave projections, decreasing the degree of confidence of the results. Farther on, extended simulations with the wave model will be performed for three climate periods, of 30-year time-slice each, using the output of the chosen RCM. Slices of thirty years of data were chosen because this time interval is considered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) long enough to calculate an average that is not influenced by year-to-year variability, and which is also used for so called climate ‘normal’ (Arguez & Vose, 2011). These time-slices will cover the ‘present’ conditions, regarded as the ‘control’ conditions, when the simulation results will be compared with observations (altimeter and in-situ measurements), the ‘near future’ conditions that will cover the mid-21st century, and a century later into the ‘future’ conditions (the last 30-year period of the 21st century).

Validations of the climate model-derived wave fields for ‘present’ conditions will be made, and also an evaluation of how accurately the resulted wave climate fields are, compared with historical means and extremes wave records. Data assimilation (DA) methods (e.g. the method applied by Rusu, 2015) will be used to improve the significant wave height predictions, when observations are available. As a next step, two sets of simulations corresponding to the future conditions (for both the time-slices) will be made considering the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Based on the results obtained, potential future changes in the wave climate of the Black Sea will be assessed, especially for identification of the possible trends in the sea wave climate. A particular attention will be paid to quantify the climate change effects on the severity and frequency of extreme meteorological and marine events. Estimations of the future changes of the mean and extreme values of the main wave parameters will be made.

A two-level wave modelling system will be used in the process of downscaling from the offshore towards the Romanian coastal environment. Wave climate simulations will be made at both levels. The further evaluations in the Romanian nearshore will use information from the second level that accounts better for the wave transformation in the coastal area. Based on this information, the expected coastal dynamics will be also assessed. Finally, new high resolution data archives for wind speeds, significant wave heights, mean wave periods and mean wave directions will be developed for the time-slices considered.

Activities according to project objectives

Project Results

    The main outcomes resulting from ACCWA project will be:

  1. estimation of the future changes of the mean and extreme values of the main wave parameters will be made for the entire Black Sea basin, together with their variability and long-term changes;
  2. an evaluation of the expected coastal dynamics in the Romanian nearshore;
  3. development of the new high resolution data archives for wind speeds, significant wave heights, mean wave periods and mean wave directions for the time slice considered;
  4. projections concerning possible wind and wave energy exploitations in the Romanian coastal environment based o the simulations of the future wave climate, together with the analysis of the wind fields derived from RCM output;
  5. evaluation of the changes in the marine extreme events in some key locations.

Scientific Report 2017

Scientific Report 2018

Scientific Report 2019

Project Team

  • project manager
    • 1. liliana celia rusu - university professor cv
  • members
    • 2. răzvan mateescu - cs i - researcher cv
    • 3. eugen victor cristian rusu - university professor cv
    • 4. mariana bernardino - cs - researcher cv
    • 5. daniel ganea - lecturer, postdoctoral researcher cv
    • 6. alina beatrice răileanu - postdoctoral researcher cv
    • 7. vasile rață - Assistant researcher (PhD Student)

DISSEMINATION

2019

    1. Publications in international journals
    2. Rusu, L., 2019, “Evaluation of the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea under two climate scenarios”, Renewable Energy 1237, 137-146, WoS Q1, IF=5.439, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.04.092
    3. Rusu, E., 2019, “A 30-year projection of the future wind energy resources in the coastal environment of the Black Sea”, Renewable Energy 139, 228-234, WoS Q1, IF=5.439, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.082
    4. Ganea, D., Mereuta, E., Rusu, E., 2019, “An Evaluation of the Wind and Wave Dynamics along the European Coasts”, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 7(2), 43, WoS Q3, IF=1.732, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7020043
    5. Anton, I.A., Rusu, L., Anton, C., 2019, “Nearshore Wave Dynamics at Mangalia Beach Simulated by Spectral Models”, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 7(7), 206, WoS Q3, IF=1.732, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7070206
    6. Participation in international conferences and publication in conferences' proceedings
    7. Rata, V, Hobjila, A., Rusu, L., 2019, “LNG to Power in the Romanian port of Constanta”. Presented at 4th International Conference on Advances on Clean Energy Research (ICACER 2019), Coimbra, Portugal, April 5-7, 5 pag., WoS indexed, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201910301007
    8. Rata, V, Rusu, L., 2019, “Impact on air quality of the offshore-ships which are operating in the Black Sea maritime borders of Romania”. Presented at 5th International Scientific Conference SEA-CONF 2019, 17-18 May, Constanta, Romania, https://www.anmb.ro/ro/conferinte/sea-conf/
    9. Rata, V, Rusu, L., 2019, “Air pollutant products resulting from port activity of ships in Constanta harbour”. Presented at XIX International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Section Air Pollution and Climate Change, 28 June – 7 July, Albena, Bulgaria, pp. 821-828, SCOPUS, https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2019/4.1
    10. Hobjila, A., Rata, V, Rusu, L., 2019, “Benefit of Combined Renewable Energy Farms in Western Black Sea”. Presented at XIX International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Section Renewable Energy Sources and Clean Technologies, 28 June – 7 July, Albena, Bulgaria, pp. 51-58, SCOPUS, https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2019/4.1
    11. Ganea, D., Rusu, L, Mereuta, E., 2019, “Turbines Evaluation in the Nearshore and Offshore of the Black Sea”. Presented at XIX International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Section Renewable Energy Sources and Clean Technologies, 28 June – 7 July, Albena, Bulgaria, pp. 291-297, SCOPUS, https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2019/4.1
    12. Ganea, D., Rusu, L, Mereuta, E., 2019, “Joint Evaluation of the Future Wave and Wind Energy Close to Bulgaria and Romania Coastlines”. Presented at XIX International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Section Renewable Energy Sources and Clean Technologies, 28 June – 7 July, Albena, Bulgaria, pp. 585-592, SCOPUS, https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2019/4.1
    13. Banescu, A., Georgescu, L, Rusu, E., Murariu, G., 2019, “Analysis of the floods risk in the peripheral localities from the north of the Danube delta using GIS technologies”. Presented at XIX International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Section Cartography and GIS, 28 June – 7 July, Albena, Bulgaria, pp. 723-731, SCOPUS, https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2019/2.2
    14. Banescu, A., Georgescu, L, Iticescu, C., Rusu, E., 2019, “Analysis of the flood risk agriculturals enclosures from the Danube delta using 2D modeling. Case study Pardina enclosure”. Presented at XIX International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Section Hydrology and Water Resources, 28 June – 7 July, Albena, Bulgaria, pp. 33-40, SCOPUS, https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2019/3.1
    15. Rusu, L., 2019, “An Analysis of the Expected Climate Change Effects in the Vicinity of the Main Harbors from the Black Sea”. Presented at 16th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST2019), 4-7 September, Rodos, Grecia, https://cest2019.gnest.org/
    16. Rusu, E., 2019, “A Comparison between the Past and Future Expected Wind Conditions in the European Coastal Environment of the Mediterranean Sea”. Presented at 16th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST2019), 4-7 September, Rodos, Grecia, https://cest2019.gnest.org/
    17. Rusu, L., 2019, “Data assimilation methods to improve the wave predictions in the Black Sea”. Presented at 2nd International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards, incorporating the 16th International Waves Workshop, 10-15 November, Melbourne, Australia, https://conference.eng.unimelb.edu.au/waves/
    18. Rusu, E., 2019, “An analysis of the expected storm dynamics in the basin of the Black Sea”. Presented at 2nd International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards, incorporating the 16th International Waves Workshop, 10-15 November, Melbourne, Australia, https://conference.eng.unimelb.edu.au/waves/
    19. Presentations at national conferences
    20. Rata, V., Rusu, L., 2019, “Offshore operations effects on the Romanian coast air quality”, PP1.9., Conference: CSSD2019 -Scientific Conference of the Doctoral Schools - Perspectives and Challanges in Doctoral Research, June 2019, Galati, Romania, http://www.cssd-udjg.ugal.ro/index.php/abstracts-2019

2018

    1. Publications in international journals
    2. Rusu, L., Raileanu, A.B., Onea, F., 2018, “A comparative analysis of the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea along the shipping routes”, Water 10(7), 924, IF=2.069, http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/7/924
    3. Rata, V., Gasparotti, C., Rusu, L., 2018, “Ballast Water Management in the Black Sea’s Ports”, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 6(2), 69, WoS indexed, http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/6/2/69
    4. Ganea, D., Mereuta, E., Rusu, L., 2018, “Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea”, Energies 11(11), IF=2.676, https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies/special_issues/offshore
    5. Participation in international conferences and publication in conferences' proceedings
    6. Rusu, L., 2018, “The influence of climate change on the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea Basin”. Presented at 13th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES2018), 30 September – 4 October, Palermo, Italia, http://www.palermo2018.sdewes.org/
    7. Rusu, E., 2018, “A 30-year projection of the future wind energy resources in the coastal environment of the Black Sea”. Presented at 13th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES2018), 30 September – 4 October, Palermo, Italia, http://www.palermo2018.sdewes.org/
    8. Rata, V., Rusu, L., 2018, “Assessing the traffic risk along the main Black Sea maritime routes”. Proceeding of the Fourth International Conference on Traffic and Transport Engineering (ICTTE Belgrade 2018), 27 - 28 September, Belgrade, Serbia, (WoS indexed), http://ijtte.com/article/102/ICTTE_Belgrade_2018.html
    9. Rusu, L., 2018, “Assessment of the wave climate in the Black Sea based on 30-year of wave hindcast”. Presented at Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) meeting - UNESCO, 21 - 23 May, Paris, France, http://www.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewEventAgenda&eventID=2242
    10. Rusu, L., Bernardino, M., Guedes Soares, C., 2018, “Analysis of extreme storms in the Black Sea”. Presented at the 4th International Conference on Maritime Technology and Engineering - MARTECH 2018, 7-9 May, Lisbon, Portugal, published in Progress in Maritime Engineering and Technology , Guedes Soares & Santos (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, 699-704, http://www.centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/martech2018/
    11. Ganea, D., Mereuta, E., Rusu, L., 2018, “Analysis of the present and near future wind conditions in the western side of the Black Sea”. Proceeding of the 18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2018 – Marine and Ocean Ecosystems, 30 June – 9 July, Albena, pp. 127-134, (WoS indexed), https://www.sgem.org/
    12. Ganea, D., Rusu, L., Mereuta, E., 2018, “Study of the winter extreme wind in the Black Sea in the context of the climate changes”. Proceeding of the 18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2018 – Marine and Ocean Ecosystems, 30 June – 9 July, Albena, pp. 659-665, (WoS indexed), https://www.sgem.org/
    13. Rata, V., Rusu, L., Gasparotti, C., 2018, “Analysis of the extreme events reported in the proximity of the Romanian harbour areas”. Proceeding of the 18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2018 – Marine and Ocean Ecosystems, 30 June – 9 July, Albena, pp. 1071-1077, (WoS indexed), https://www.sgem.org/
    14. Raileanu, A., Onea, F., Rusu, L., 2018, “Coastal Protection of the Romanian Nearshore throughout Hybrid Wave and Offshore Wind Farms”. Paper presented at Int. Conference on Advances on Clean Energy Research (ICACER2016), 6-8 April, Barcelona, Spain, (WoS indexed), http://www.icacer.com/
    15. Mateescu, R., Vlasceanu, E., Rusu, L., 2018, “Analysis-based results on the delineation of prearrangement areas for marine renewable energy installations in the western Black Sea basin”. Paper presented at Int. Conference on Advances on Clean Energy Research (ICACER2016), 6-8 April, Barcelona, Spain, (WoS indexed), http://www.icacer.com/
    16. Rață, V., Rusu, L., 2018, “Evaluating Pleasure Navigation and Fishery Boats in the Black Sea Coastal Area of Romania” Conference: CSSD2018 -Scientific Conference of the Doctoral Schools - Perspectives and Challanges in Doctoral Research, June 2018, Galati, Romania, http://www.cssd-udjg.ugal.ro/index.php/abstracts-2018
    17. Banescu, A. Georgescu, L.P., , Rusu, E., Iticescu, C. 2018, “Use of GIS technology to support the navigation on the Danube River”, International Conference on Traffic and Transport Engineering (ICTTE Belgrade 2018), 27 - 28 September, Belgrade, Serbia, (WoS indexed), pp 160-168. http://ijtte.com/article/102/ICTTE_Belgrade_2018.html
    18. Publications in national journals indexed in international databases
    19. Rusu, E., 2018, “An analysis of the storm dynamics in the Black Sea”, Romanian Journal of Technical Sciences - Applied Mechanics, accepted for publication in Vol. 63(2), http://www.academiaromana.ro/RJTS-AM.htm
    20. Banescu, A. Georgescu, L.P., Iticescu, C., Rusu, E., 2018, “Analysis of river level and of the volume flow on the Danube close to the city of Tulcea, based on in situ measurements”, Journal of Marine Technology and Environment 1, 7-13, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324149440_ANALYSIS_OF_RIVER_LEVEL_AND_OF_THE_VOLUME_FLOW_ON_THE_DANUBE_CLOSE_TO_THE_CITY_OF_TULCEA_BASED_ON_IN_SITU_MEASUREMENTS

YEAR 2017

    1. Publications in international journals
    2. Onea, F., Rusu, L., 2017, “A long-term assessment of the Black Sea wave climate”, Sustainability 9(10), 1875, IF=1,789 http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/10/1875, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su9101875
    3. Rusu, L., Ganea, D., Mereuță, E., 2017, “A joint evaluation of wave and wind energy resources in the Black Sea based on 20-year hindcast information”, Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 17 pag, in press, IF=0,963 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0144598717736389
    4. Participation in international conferences and publication in conferences' proceedings
    5. Rusu, L., 2017, “Evaluation of the accuracy of the spectral models in predicting the storm events in the Black Sea” Presented at the 17th International Congress of the International Maritime Association of the Mediterranean - IMAM 2017, Lisbon, Portugal, 9 - 11 October 2017, published in Developments in Maritime Transportation and Harvesting of Sea Resources – Guedes Soares & Teixeira (Eds), Taylor & Francis Group, London, Vol. 2, 1105-1117. (ISI – indexed) http://www.imamhomepage.org/imam2017/, https://www.routledge.com/Developments-in-Maritime-Transportation-and-Harvesting-of-Sea-Resources/Guedes-Soares-Teixeira/p/book/9780815379935
    6. Vlăsceanu, E., Buzbuchi, N., Rusu, E., "Application of Numerical Hydrodynamic Models in the Study of Waves and Currents in Romanian Black Sea Area", The International Symposium “Protection of the Black Sea Ecosystem and Sustainable Management of Maritime Activities - PROMARE 2017”, 8th Edition, 7-9 September 2017, Constanța, România - Poster
    7. Rusu, L., "An Overview of the Wind and Wave Climate in the Romanian Nearshore", ICESCC 2017 : 19th International Conference on Earth Science and Climate Change, Rome, Italy, December 11-12, 2017. Abstract published in International Journal of Geological and Environmental Engineering, Vol:11, No:12, 2017. - https://www.waset.org/abstracts/78557
    8. Rusu, E., "Storms Dynamics in the Black Sea in the Context of the Climate Changes", ICESCC 2017 : 19th International Conference on Earth Science and Climate Change, Rome, Italy, December 11-12, 2017. Abstract published in International Journal of Geological and Environmental Engineering, Vol:11, No:12, 2017. - https://www.waset.org/abstracts/78532
    9. Publications in national journals indexed in international databases
    10. Rață, V., Gasparotti, C., Rusu, L., 2017, “The Importance of the Reduction of Air Pollution in the Black Sea Basin”, Journal of Mechanical Testing and Diagnosis, ISSN 2247–9635, 2017 (VII), Volume 2, pp. 5-15, http://www.im.ugal.ro/mtd/download/2017-2/1_MTD_Volume%202_2017%20Rata%20Rusu.pdf
    11. Anton, C., Rusu, E., Mateescu, R., 2017, “An Analysis of the Coastal Risks in the Romanian Nearshore”, Journal of Mechanical Testing and Diagnosis, ISSN 2247–9635, 2017(VII), Volume 1, pp. 18-27, http://www.om.ugal.ro/mtd/download/2017-1/V2-2%20MTD_2017_Volume%201_Rusu%20xx.pdf
    12. Anton, C., Carmen Gasparotti, Răileanu, A., Rusu, E., 2017, “Towards an Integrated Management and Planning in the Romanian Black Sea Coastal Zones”, Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, Vol. 13, no 5, pp 59-71, http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/viewFile/4381/4208